How Joshua Project Knows What It Knows (and What It Still Needs to Learn)

We rely on triangulation, not guesswork. Here is what that means for your prayers.

If you have ever looked up a people group on Joshua Project and wondered, “Where does this information actually come from?” you are not alone. It is one of the most common questions we receive. And it is the right question to ask, because the answer reveals both the strength of this database and its greatest vulnerability.

For 30 years, Joshua Project has worked to build a comprehensive picture of the world’s people groups so the global Church can pray and act strategically for those with the least access and response to the gospel. Our team aggregates information from mission agencies, research networks, census data, field workers, and national representatives. We reconcile conflicting reports, standardize definitions, and present what we believe is the best available estimate for each people group’s population, location, language, religion, and gospel progress.

That process has produced an extraordinary resource. But we want to be transparent with you about something: for many people groups, our data is built on very few sources.

Why More Sources Matter

Imagine you are trying to understand how many evangelical Christians exist within a particular people group in South Asia. One research partner reports 0.3%. A government census (which often undercounts religious minorities) reports 0.01%. A field worker who has spent a decade in the region estimates closer to 0.8% based on what they have personally witnessed.

Which number is right? The honest answer is that we cannot be certain from any single source. But when we can compare multiple independent observations, patterns emerge. If three out of four sources cluster around a similar range, our confidence grows. If reports conflict sharply, that is a signal to investigate further. This practice is called triangulation, and it is the difference between publishing a guess and publishing a reliable estimate.

Historically, Joshua Project has not always had enough inputs to triangulate effectively. Most updates came from large periodic datasets (delivered annually or less frequently) or occasional individual corrections. The data was valuable but sparse. For many people groups, especially those in the hardest-to-reach places, we have been working with a few sources.

We are building the infrastructure to change that.

One of the most significant steps came in 2025, when Joshua Project deployed National Representatives for the first time in our 30-year history. These are researchers based in their own countries who collect and validate people group data, reconcile conflicting reports, and help the local church use our research for strategic sending. We currently have 12 National or Regional Representatives serving across multiple regions, and we plan to increase that number significantly this year. With the new digital infrastructure, this means Joshua Project is no longer just waiting for data to come in. We are actively going after it. Click the link below to explore whether the role suits you or somebody in your network:

Two New Web Pages, One Big Shift

Our team has launched two new pages on the Joshua Project website, representing a significant step forward in how we collect, explain, and protect mission data.

The Data page on our website explains where our data comes from, its limitations, and how we protect sensitive information. We believe transparency builds trust. If you use Joshua Project data for prayer, teaching, or strategy, this page will help you understand what the numbers can and cannot tell you.

One important principle it highlights: our figures are “Best Available Estimates,” not exact counts. Population figures, evangelical percentages, and progress indicators reflect our current best understanding based on available sources. They are designed to orient your prayer and planning, not to replace local knowledge.   

The Submit Data is the companion page, where things get exciting for anyone working in the field. This page provides three pathways for contributing data back to Joshua Project, each designed for a different workflow:

Connected Apps are for teams that already use ministry tracking platforms. GAPP (by Ta Ethni) can now directly link with Joshua Project, allowing anonymized and aggregated activity data at a country level flow into our database. If your organization uses a tracking tool, like GAPP, this is the most seamless option.

Field Survey Forms work offline and are ideal for periodic updates from the field: population snapshots, engagement status, prayer needs, profiles, and photos. If you are visiting or living among a people group and have observations to share, this is your entry point.

Batch Spreadsheet Uploads serve organizations that maintain their own spreadsheets and want to sync data in bulk, whether quarterly, annually, or on their own schedule.

Every submission, regardless of pathway, goes through the same process: intake and validation, normalization to a common format, storage as a timestamped observation, triangulation against other sources, and publication only when the evidence supports it and it is safe to share. Your raw inputs are kept separate from what is published, and all submissions are non-attributed by default.

The Data Point We Need Most

Of all the fields Joshua Project tracks, Phase of Engagement is the one with the largest gaps globally. Phase of Engagement captures where a people group stands on the journey from waiting on the gospel to sustained gospel presence. 

This metric has never been tracked at a global level before. And yet it is arguably the most strategically important piece of information the mission community could share, because it reveals not just where people are unreached, but also where engagement is happening and what kind of engagement it is on a continuum. 

Here is the encouraging part: if you are working among a people group, you already know this information. You know whether evangelism has begun. You know whether believing communities are forming. You know whether local leaders are multiplying. Reporting your Phase of Engagement takes minutes and provides something no census or academic survey can: a real-time window into what God is doing among the nations.

In 2026, Joshua Project will launch new 3D Engagement Scales developed in collaboration with several partner organizations. These scales combine Phase of Engagement with Engagement Strength and strategic Accelerators to create a much richer picture of gospel progress. But the foundation of that entire framework depends on field-reported phase data. Without your observations, the global picture remains incomplete.

How You Can Help

If you work among unreached or frontier peoples: Visit our data submission page and submit what you know, starting with Phase of Engagement for the people groups where you are active. Even a single observation from the field adds to the global picture.

If you pray for the unreached: Visit our data page to understand how the data behind your prayer resources is built. Pray for the researchers, field workers, and national representatives who gather information in difficult and sometimes dangerous conditions. And pray that the global Church would respond generously, sharing what it knows so that strategic prayer and action can reach every people group.

Join us in what God is doing!

Would you financially partner with us to equip the global church with tools to prioritize prayer and mission work among the least-reached?

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